The Turret

Going into episode 4

These were worked out after the episode aired, from what was known before it.

Who do the Traitors murder next?

  1. Miranda Hart

    The Oracle: No votes received at all, no shield, very vulnerable.

    8%
  2. Romesh Ranganathan

    The Oracle: No votes received, vocal but not suspected, no shield.

    7%
  3. King Kenny

    The Oracle: No votes received, quiet presence, easy murder pick.

    7%
  4. Ross Kemp

    The Oracle: No votes received, assertive player traitors may want gone.

    7%
  5. Sharon Rooney

    The Oracle: No votes received, sacrificed shield, unprotected now.

    7%

Who goes at the round table?

  1. Jerry Hall

    The Oracle: 4 votes at last round table; clear runner-up, high risk.

    17%
  2. Michael Sheen

    The Oracle: 1 vote last table; outspoken player, suspicion may grow fast.

    8%
  3. Julie Hesmondhalgh

    The Oracle: Got 1 vote last table; mild suspicion could grow.

    7%
  4. Leigh-Anne Pinnock

    The Oracle: Had early votes; suspicion may resurface.

    5%
  5. Hannah Fry

    The Oracle: Newly recruited traitor; fresh face, not yet suspected.

    5%

Who wins?

  1. Maya Jama

    The Oracle: Original traitor with shield; strongest traitor win candidate.

    23%
  2. Joanne McNally

    The Oracle: Faithful, clean record; good shot if traitors are found out.

    16%
  3. James Blunt

    The Oracle: Faithful, low profile; needs all traitors gone to win.

    15%
  4. Bella Ramsey

    The Oracle: Faithful; needs traitors all gone, competitive field.

    15%
  5. Joe Lycett

    The Oracle: Active faithful; decent winning chance if game goes right.

    15%

Which side takes the prize?

TraitorsFaithfuls

Traitors won three of the five earlier UK series.

How the odds have moved

Each player’s chance of winning, as the consensus saw it going into each episode.

0%10%20%Ep 2Ep 3Ep 4Maya23%Joanne16%James B.15%Bella15%Joe15%Miranda14%

The six likeliest are named. Red lines are Traitors. Pick anyone else to light up their line:

How the calls have gone

  • Consensus

    None of three called exactly, three of three in the top three.

    All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.

    Each call
    • Going into episode 2, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 2 at 6%.
    • Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.
    • Going into episode 3, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 3 at 6%.

  • The Model

    None of three called exactly, three of three in the top three.

    All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.

    Each call
    • Going into episode 2, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 2 at 6%.
    • Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.
    • Going into episode 3, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 3 at 6%.

  • The Oracle

    None of three called exactly, one of three in the top three.

    All worked out afterwards, from what was known before each episode.

    Each call
    • Going into episode 2, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 14 at 5%.
    • Going into episode 2, who is murdered: it was Amol Rajan, ranked 2 at 50%.
    • Going into episode 3, who is banished: it was Richard E. Grant, ranked 4 at 6%.

A gold mark is a call that was exactly right; a ring is one that had the answer in its top three. A random pick would be exactly right about 20% of the time.

The Model is a scorecard over the votes so far. The Oracle is a language model reading the same facts and the week’s coverage. Neither has seen any episode that has not aired. Five earlier series is a small sample: expect misses.